Pengaruh Arus Modal Asing dan Perbedaan Suku Bunga Global terhadap Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63822/es6d3j33Keywords:
Foreign Capital Flows, Global Interest Rates, Financial System Stability, NCI, TEAL and Z-score.Abstract
The purpose of the study is to test and analyze the Influence of Foreign Capital Flows and Global Interest Rate Differences on the Stability of the Financial System of Developed and Developing Countries in the period 2014 - 2024 both partially and simultaneously. This type of research uses a quantitative approach, namely, the sampling technique using purposive sampling. Data analysis used was panel data regression analysis. Statistical test using Software Eviews 12. The samples obtained were 3 with observation results of 33 samples. The results of the analysis show that the NCI has not had a significant effect on the stability of the financial system, indicating that the volatility of international capital flows does not directly weaken banking resilience. Conversely, TEAL has a positive and significant effect on financial system stability, signaling that well-managed global financial integration can strengthen banking resilience through risk diversification and access to international liquidity. Simultaneously, NCI and TEAL have a significant effect on the stability of the financial system with a very high level of clear power of the model. These findings underscore the importance of the role of financial intermediaries in managing global risks and strengthening financial system stability amid increasing international financial integration.
References
Allen, F., & Santomero, A. M. (1997). The theory of financial intermediation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(11–12), 1461–1485. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01388162
Andini, S. A., & Falianty, T. A. (2022). Property Price, Capital Inflows, and Financial System Stability in Asean-5 Economies: a Simultaneous Analysis. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 37(1), 15–38. https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.v37i1.1406
Bank, W. (2024). Global Financial Development Database. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/gfdr/data/global-financial-development-database
Basuki, A. T., & Yuliadi, I. (2014). Elektronik dan Data Prosesing: SPSS15 dan Eviews 7. Danisa Media, Yogyakarta.
Boyd, J. H., & Runkle, D. E. (1993). Size and performance of banking firms: Testing the predictions of theory. Journal of Monetary Economics, 31(1), 47–67.
Durguti, E. A., Meka, E., Idrrisu, K., & Spahiu, M. J. (2025). Banking Stability under Governance Factors in SEE: Examining Capital Adequacy, Lending Rates, and Governance Quality Using Z-Score. Ekonomika, 104(3), 124–141. https://doi.org/10.15388/Ekon.2025.104.3.7
Eberhardt, M., & Presbitero, A. F. (2021). Commodity prices and banking crises. Journal of International Economics, 131, 103474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103474
Ebire, K., Ullah, S., Adeleye, B. N., & Shah, M. I. (2021). Effect of capital flows on financial stability in middle-income countries. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 29(5), 491–513. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFRC-08-2020-0081
Fund, I. M. (2020). Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). International Monetary Fund.
Laeven, L., & Valencia, F. (2018). Systemic banking crises revisited. International Monetary Fund.
Lane, P. R., & Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2007). The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970–2004. Journal of International Economics, 73(2), 223–250.
Lin, T., Liu, L., & Liang, X. (2025). U.S. Monetary Policy and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: The Role of Capital Controls in Financial Stability. Sustainability (Switzerland), 17(24), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172411369
Lodewijks, J. (2023). Global capital flows and financial instability. In Elgar Encyclopedia of Financial Crises (pp. 168–170). Edward Elgar Publishing.
Mare, D. S., Moreira, F., & Rossi, R. (2017). Nonstationary Z-Score measures. European Journal of Operational Research, 260(1), 348–358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.12.001
Munir, N., Mustafa, A., Safdar, S., & Khan, A. (2025). Monetary Policy, Interest Rates and Financial Stability in a High-Inflation Environment. Journal of Asian Development Studies, 14(3), 131–141. https://doi.org/10.62345/jads.2025.14.3.11
Napitupulu, R. B., Simanjuntak, T. P., Hutabarat, L., Damanik, H., Harianja, H., Sirait, R. T. M., & Lumban Tobing, C. E. R. (2021). Penelitian Bisnis, Teknik dan Analisa dengan SPSS-STATA-Eviews. Madenatera.
Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (1996). Foundations of International Macroeconomics. MIT Press.
Ruda, L., & Kraus, O. (2024). the Impact of Globalization on International Financial Markets. Innovation and Sustainability, 53–59. https://doi.org/10.31649/ins.2024.2.53.59
Saad, R. A., & Sági, J. (2025). Assessing the Impact of Globalization on Financial Stability: Evidence From Selected Developed and Developing Countries. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 22(2), 397–410. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.22(2).2025.31
Ullah, S., Ullah, A., & Zaman, M. (2024). Nexus of governance, macroeconomic conditions, and financial stability of banks: a comparison of developed and emerging countries. Financial Innovation, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00542-x
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Hasbi Dwi Oktafianto, Hajar Chair Ar Rachman, Rizal Maulana, Perwito (Author)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.



