Analisis Kausalitas Antara Konsumsi Energi Fosil, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Foreign Direct Investment di Negara-Negara ASEAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63822/8g6xq551Keywords:
Fossil Energy; Economic Growth; Foreign Direct Investment; ASEAN; Causality.Abstract
This study examines the causal relationship between fossil energy consumption, economic growth, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines) over the period 2005-2024. Using panel data with 120 observations, this research employs the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM) framework with ARDL Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test integrated within the Toda-Yamamoto approach. The findings reveal unidirectional causality running from economic growth to fossil energy consumption at the 5% significance level, supporting the Conservation Hypothesis. Furthermore, unidirectional causality is found from fossil energy consumption to FDI and from economic growth to FDI at the 1% significance level, indicating that FDI acts as a pure recipient in the ASEAN causal system. In the long run, fossil energy consumption has a positive and significant effect on economic growth with an elasticity of 1.011 at the 1% level, while FDI shows a significant positive effect on fossil energy consumption with a coefficient of 0.039 at the 1% level. The Error Correction Term (ECT) is negative and significant at the 10% level in the energy equation, confirming a long-term equilibrium adjustment mechanism. These findings imply that economic growth is the primary driver in the ASEAN energy-investment system, while FDI does not provide significant feedback to either economic growth or energy consumption, suggesting the need for green investment attraction and energy diversification policies to achieve sustainable development in the region.
Downloads
References
Andriansyah, & Messinis, G. (2019). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in ASEAN: A Toda-Yamamoto approach. Journal of Asian Economics, *60*, 1-16.
Annisa Amalia Noor, & Amalia, F. (2024). Analisis Hubungan Kausalitas Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Ekspor, Konsumsi, Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Tahun 1997 – 2022. Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta.
Belloumi, M., & Alshehry, A. S. (2018). The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: A causality analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, *8*(5), 87-95.
Darwanto, D., Woyanti, N., Budi, S. P., Sasana, H., & Ghozali, I. (2019). The damaging growth: An empiric evidence of environmental Kuznets curve in Indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, *9*(5), 339–345. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7816
Dunning, J. H. (1981). Explaining the international direct investment position of countries: Towards a dynamic or developmental approach. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, *117*(1), 30-64.
El-Shafie, M., & Kambara, S. (2022). Recent advances in ammonia synthesis technologies: Toward future zero carbon emissions.
Fiannurizki, P. Y. (2024). Hubungan antara pendapatan, konsumsi energi, FDI, perdagangan, pariwisata, dan lingkungan: Analisis data 5 negara ASEAN. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, *7*(1), 25–34. https://doi.org/10.33005/jdep.v7i1.480
Indriawati, R. M., Theola, S., & Kbarek, I. (2025). Investasi asing langsung sebagai katalis pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia: Studi komprehensif.
Li, B., & Haneklaus, N. (2022). The role of clean energy, fossil fuel consumption and trade openness for carbon neutrality in China. Energy Reports, *8*, 1090–1098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.02.092
Li, W., Yu, X., Hu, N., Huang, F., Wang, J., & Peng, Q. (2022). Study on the relationship between fossil energy consumption and carbon emission in Sichuan Province. Energy Reports, *8*, 53–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2022.01.112
Lu, J., Imran, M., Haseeb, A., Saud, S., Wu, M., Siddiqui, F., & Khan, M. J. (2021). Nexus between financial development, FDI, globalization, energy consumption and environment: Evidence from BRI countries. Frontiers in Energy Research, *9*. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2021.707590
Moftah, M., & Dilek, S. (2021). The relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and FDI in MENA countries: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, *11*(4), 280-288.
Munir, Q., & Smyth, R. (2020). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A cross-sectional dependence approach.
Mwakabungu, B. H. P., & Kauangal, J. (2023). An empirical analysis of the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Tanzania. Cogent Economics and Finance, *11*(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2204606
Nupehewa, S., Liyanage, S., Polkotuwa, D., Thiyagarajah, M., Jayathilaka, R., & Lokeshwara, A. (2022). More than just investment: Causality analysis between foreign direct investment and economic growth. PLoS ONE, *17*(11). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276621
Nur Mozahid, M., Akter, S., & Hafiz Iqbal, M. (2022). Causality analysis of CO2 emissions, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, and energy consumption: Empirical evidence from South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, *29*(43), 65684–65698. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-20362-3
Pao, H. T., & Tsai, C. M. (2011). Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, and China) countries. Energy, *36*(1), 685–693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.09.041
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, *61*(S1), 653-670.
Rahmawati, A., & Robertus, M. H. (2023). Pengaruh konsumsi listrik, pertumbuhan ekonomi, industrialisasi, dan keterbukaan perdagangan terhadap emisi CO2 di Indonesia tahun 1983-2019. Diponegoro Journal of Economics, *12*(3), 13–21. https://doi.org/10.14710/djoe.39536
Sahir, S. H. (2022). Metodologi Penelitian. Penerbit KBM Indonesia.
Sankaran, A., Kumar, S., & Das, M. (2019). Energy consumption, economic growth and FDI in ASEAN countries: A panel ARDL approach. Journal of Economic Development, *44*(4), 47-64.
Santana, F. R., & Maria, N. S. B. (2024). Determinan emisi CO2 pada negara anggota ASEAN tahun 2015-2022. Diponegoro Journal of Economics, *13*(2), 53–68. https://doi.org/10.14710/djoe.44589
Schleussner, C. F., Ganti, G., Rogelj, J., & Gidden, M. J. (2022). An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives. Communications Earth and Environment, *3*(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w
Septyani, D., & Hartati, S. (2024). Konsumsi energi fosil terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Journal of Economic, Business and Accounting.
Singh, S., Kiran, B. R., & Mohan, S. V. (2024). Carbon farming: A circular framework to augment CO2 sinks and to combat climate change. Environmental Science: Advances, *3*(4), 522–542. https://doi.org/10.1039/d3va00296a
Sotiropoulou, A., Tsagkanos, A., & Vartholomatou, K. (2023). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in the European Union: A Toda-Yamamoto approach. Journal of Economic Studies, *50*(4), 789-804.
Stern, D. I. (2000). A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy. Energy Economics, *22*(2), 267-283.
Sugiono. (2013). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Alfabeta.
Sukirno, S. (1994). Teori Ekonomi Makro. Rajawali Pers.
Tijjani Usman, I. M., Ho, Y. C., Baloo, L., Lam, M. K., & Sujarwo, W. (2022). A comprehensive review on the advances of bioproducts from biomass towards meeting net zero carbon emissions (NZCE). Bioresource Technology, *366*. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2022.128167
Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, *66*(1-2), 225-250.
UNFCCC. (2015). Paris Agreement. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Wang, J., & Azam, W. (2024). Natural resource scarcity, fossil fuel energy consumption, and total greenhouse gas emissions in top emitting countries. Geoscience Frontiers, *15*(2). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101757
Whilla Saputra, A., & Indira Hasmarini, M. (2025). Apakah foreign direct investment dan pertumbuhan ekonomi menyebabkan emisi karbon di Indonesia? Issues, *8*.
Yildirim, E., Aslan, A., & Ozturk, I. (2014). Energy consumption and GDP in ASEAN countries: Bootstrap-corrected panel and time series causality tests. Singapore Economic Review, *59*(2). https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590814500106
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Maisa Mahran Rahmahhani, Siti Fatimah Zahra, Sri Indah Nikensari (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
