Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar, Dow Jones Industrial Average, dan Nikkei 225 terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2017–2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63822/8ny7tt08Keywords:
Interest Rate; Exchange Rate; Dow Jones Industrial Average; Nikkei 225; Composite Stock Price IndexAbstract
This study analyzes the influence of interest rates, exchange rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the Nikkei 225 on the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in Indonesia during 2017–2025. Using quantitative approach with 108 monthly time series observations, the analysis employs multiple linear regression with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) corrected using Newey-West HAC Standard Errors to address autocorrelation. The results show that interest rates have a positive and significant effect on the IHSG (t = 4.347; p = 0.000), while exchange rates have a negative and significant effect (t = -5.163; p = 0.000). The DJIA has no significant effect on the IHSG (t = -1.046; p = 0.298), indicating domestic factors play a more dominant role. The Nikkei 225 has a positive and significant effect (t = 14.093; p = 0.000), confirming strong linkages between Indonesian and Japanese capital markets. The adjusted R-squared of 88.29% indicates that the four independent variables explain 88.29% of IHSG movements. These findings confirm that domestic factors such as interest rates and exchange rates, as well as regional factors such as the Nikkei 225, have a more dominant role in influencing IHSG movements compared to global factors such as the DJIA.
Downloads
References
Ahmad, S. J., & Badri, J. (2022). Pengaruh inflasi dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada tahun 2013-2021. Jurnal Economina, 1(3), 679–689. https://ejournal.45mataram.ac.id/index.php/economina
Alvian, L. A., Azari, C., & Herman. (2017). Pengaruh inflasi, nilai tukar dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Studi pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2015-2017). 18–30.
Ambarwati, F., & Nugroho, R. H. (2022). Pengaruh Indeks Nikkei 225, Inflasi, Kurs USD/IDR dan BI Rate terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Juli 2016 – Juni 2021. Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 7(4), 3906–3917.
Angraini, L. A., Hutasoit, N. S., & Ugut, G. S. (2022). Sentimen Investor, Faktor Fundamental Makroekonomi dan Excess Return Pasar Saham di Indonesia. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 9(1), 27–34. https://doi.org/10.26905/jbm.v9i1.7178
Ardian, R., Hendayana, Y., & Sulistyowati, A. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. KINERJA: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 6(1), 180–193. https://doi.org/10.34005/kinerja.v6i01.3580
Asih, N. W. S., & Akbar, M. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar (Kurs) dan Pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Studi Kasus pada Perusahaan Properti yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Akuntansi, 17(1), 43–54.
Asriani, D., & Hapsari, M. T. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, BI7DRR, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar Terhadap IHSG Tahun 2017-2020. Jurnal EMA: Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Akuntansi, 7(1), 1–10.
Astuti, R., Apriatni, E. P., & Susanta, H. (2013). Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga (SBI), Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Inflasi, dan Indeks Bursa Internasional terhadap IHSG. Diponegoro Journal of Social and Politic of Science, 1–8.
Bai, J., Choi, S. H., & Liao, Y. (2020). Standard Errors for Panel Data Models with Unknown Clusters. ArXiv, arXiv:1910.07406. https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.07406
Bakhtiar, M. R., & Purwani, T. (2021). Dampak Indeks Nikkei 225, Indeks Dow Jones, Suku Bunga Fed, dan Inflasi terhadap IHSG. INDICATORS: Journal of Economics and Business, 3(1), 61–70. http://indicators.iseisemarang.or.id/index.php/jebis
Bangun, D. E. M. P., & Silalahi, R. (2026). Kurs dan Valuta Asing dalam Sistem Perekonomian Terbuka: Tinjauan Konseptual atas Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Nilai Tukar dan Volatilitasnya. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Manajemen (JIEM), 4(2), 1308–1321. https://doi.org/10.61722/jiem.v4i2.8961
Berliana, E., & Aji, T. S. (2025). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, JUB, BI Rate, dan Ekspor Terhadap Nilai Tukar (Kurs) di Indonesia. Independent: Journal of Economics, 5(2), 93–102.
Cevik, E., Altinkeski, B. K., Cevik, E. I., & Dibooglu, S. (2022). Investor sentiments and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial Innovation, 8(69). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-022-00375-0
Creswell, J. W. (2014). Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative, and Mixed Methods Approaches (4th Edition). SAGE Publications.
Dzulfalah, A. H. (2025). Pengenalan dan Perhitungan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Jurnal Entrepreneur Dan Manajemen Sains (JEMS), 6(1), 372–378.
Endri, E., Fauzi, F., & Effendi, M. S. (2024). Integration of the Indonesian Stock Market with Eight Major Trading Partners' Stock Markets. Economies, 12(7). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/387237583
Fathulloh, M., & Agustina, R. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Pertumbuhan PDB Terhadap IHSG. JFAS: Journal of Finance and Accounting Studies, 5(3), 134–142. https://doi.org/10.33752/jfas.v5i3.5247
Febriyanti, H. F., & Delfiani, S. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia, dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Periode 2016–2020. Jurnal Manajemen Strategi Dan Simulasi Bisnis (JMASSBI), 4(1), 41–50.
Fitri, K. (2022). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Nilai Tukar (Kurs) dan Suku Bunga Terhadap IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2016-2020. Economics, Accounting and Business Journal, 2(1), 223–232.
Fuad, & Yuliadi, I. (2021). Determinants of the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 5(1), 27–41.
Ghasemi, A., & Zahediasl, S. (2012). Normality Tests for Statistical Analysis: A Guide for Non-Statisticians. International Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism, 10(2), 486–489. https://doi.org/10.5812/ijem.3505
Ghiffari, M. F., Kindangen, P., & Tumewu, F. (2017). The Causality Relationship of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Nikkei 225 towards Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) Period 2011–2016. Jurnal EMBA, 5(2), 445–454.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill/Irwin. https://ia902902.us.archive.org/29/items/gujarati-basic-econometrics-5th-edition/Guajarati-Basic-Econometrics-5th-Edition.pdf
Hafifa, N., Maisaroh, S., Umaira, P. N., & Pangestoeti, W. (2025). Dampak Penurunan IHSG terhadap Stabilitas Ekonomi Publik Indonesia: Analisis Penyebab, Implikasi, dan Strategi Kebijakan. Socius: Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial, 2(12), 627–634. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15703818
Hakim. (2025). Pakar ITS: Merosotnya IHSG Berdampak Signifikan pada Perekonomian Indonesia. https://www.its.ac.id/news/pakar-its-merosotnya-ihsg-berdampak-signifikan-pada-perekonomian-indonesia/
Handika, H., & Damajanti, A. (2021). Faktor Penentu Fluktuasi Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 19(3), 153–165.
Harsono, A. R., & Worokinasih, S. (2018). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Studi pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2013–2017). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis. https://repository.ub.ac.id/162675/1/Ardelia%20Rezeki%20Harsono.pdf
Hartayu, & Parimita. (2023). Pengaruh Indikator Makroekonomi, Harga Minyak Dunia dan Indeks Bursa Asia terhadap IHSG Periode 2015–2019. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Keuangan, 11(2), 140–155.
Herlianto, D., & Hafizh, L. (2020). Pengaruh Indeks Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Shanghai Stock Exchange, dan Straits Times Index Singapore terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). INOBIS: Jurnal Inovasi Bisnis Dan Manajemen Indonesia, 3(2), 211–229.
Hidayat, M. S., Afandi, M. T., Maknun, L., Neysa, S. M., & Putri, T. E. (2025). Dampak Tingkat Suku Bunga Acuan Bank Indonesia Terhadap Konsumsi Rumah Tangga Muslim di Indonesia. Jurnal Entrepreneur Dan Manajemen Sains (JEMS), 4(1), 105–117.
Hidayati, N. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Kurs dan BI Rate terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 8(1), 22–34. https://journal3.um.ac.id/index.php/fe/article/view/6653
Kamajaya, D. G., & Perwithosuci, W. (2024). Determinan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Indonesia Periode 2000-2020. Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 24(2), 205–212. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v24i2.20939
Latif, A., Hidayah, Z. Z., & Afandi, D. R. (2024). Interconnected Economies: Assessing the Impact of Major Global Stock Exchanges and Macroeconomic Factors on the Indonesian Stock Market. Journal of Enterprise Development. http://journal.uinmataram.ac.id/index.php/jed/article/download/9463/3015
Mamesah, G. H., Harikatan, K., & Palalangan, M. C. (2022). The comparison and relationship of IHSG, NIKKEI, and NASDAQ. The Contrarian: Finance, Accounting, and Business Research, 1(2), 41–47.
Mankiw, N. G. (2016). Macroeconomics (9th Edition). Worth Publishers.
Midesia, S. (2022). Pengaruh Dow Jones Industrial Average dan Indeks Hang Seng terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada Tahun 2021. Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Akuntansi (JENSI), 6(2), 129–135.
Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets (12th ed.). Pearson Education. https://www.pearson.com/en-us/subject-catalog/p/the-economics-of-money-banking-and-financial-markets/P200000006028
Moorcy, N. H., Alwi, M., & Yusuf, T. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal GeoEkonomi, 12(1), 67–76. https://doi.org/10.36277/geoekonomi
Nurwulandari, A. (2021). Kurs Rupiah, Indeks Nikkei 225, BI Rate, dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Stock Exchange Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Periode Tahun 2018-2020. AKSELERASI: Jurnal Ilmiah Nasional, 3(1), 75–81.
Oktarina, D. (2016). Pengaruh Beberapa Indeks Saham Global dan Indikator Makroekonomi terhadap IHSG. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 3(1), 45–56.
Park, C.-Y. (2013). Asian Capital Market Integration: Theory and Evidence. In ADB Economics Working Paper Series (Issue 351). Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-capital-market-integration-theory-and-evidence
Pasaribu, C. N., & Ismail, M. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Moneter Indonesia dan Indeks Saham Negara Lain terhadap IHSG. Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking, 3(4), 1015–1025. https://doi.org/10.21776/csefb.2024.03.4.14
Perdana, I. M., & Setyari, N. P. W. (2023). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi IHSG di Indonesia. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 12(3), 450–465. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eeb/article/view/86012
Posangi, F. S., Hasyim, S. H., & Oktaviyah, N. (2026). Pengaruh Dow Jones Industrial Average dan Nikkei 225 Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Multiplier: Jurnal Magister Manajemen, 6(2), 1933–1947. https://doi.org/10.24905/mlt.v6i2.321
Pratama, A. K. Y., & As'ari, H. (2023). Pengaruh Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Kurs) terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) (Periode Tahun 2020-2022). Jurnal Kewirausahaan, Akuntansi Dan Manajemen Tri Bisnis, 5(1), 91–109. https://doi.org/10.59806/tribisnis.v5i1.249
Rachmawati, K. D., & Rizkianto, E. (2020). The Analysis of Flight-to-Safety Phenomenon from Stocks to Government Bonds and Their Effects on The Risk-Return Trade-off in Indonesia Stock Exchange Period March 2008 - May 2020. Proceedings of the International Conference on Business and Management Research (ICBMR 2020), 160, 144–150. https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.201222.021
Raharjo, E., & Elida, S. (2023). Pengaruh BI Rate dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Jurnal Penelitian Dan Pengabdian Ilmu Sosial Dan Bisnis, 3(2), 145–156. https://jurnal.unidha.ac.id/index.php/JPPISB/article/download/654/429/
Rahayu, P. S. P. S., & Diatmika, I. P. G. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, dan Dow Jones Industrial Average terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Periode Januari 2019-Agustus 2022). JIMAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi) Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, 14(4), 1104–1120.
Ramadhan, D. F., & Simamora, S. C. (2022). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar (Kurs) dan Suku Bunga (BI Rate) terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Masa Pandemi. JIMEN: Jurnal Inovatif Mahasiswa Manajemen, 2(2), 142–153.
Roofica, Y., & Pertiwi, T. K. (2021). Indeks Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Inflasi dan Volume Perdagangan: Analisis Pengaruh terhadap IHSG. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 8(2), 113–123.
Safiroh, R., Sumiati, S., & Ratnawati, K. (2018). Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi dan Harga Saham Asing terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 5(1), 118–126.
Saputri, N. F., & Irawati, Z. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh BI Rate, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Indeks Dow Jones, Indeks Nikkei 225 terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Ekuilnomi: Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 5(2), 361–372. https://doi.org/10.36985/ekuilnomi.v5i2.908
Sasongko, G., & Athoillah, M. (2025). The Impact of Monetary Policy on Stock Price Index Movement. Journal of Development Economics and Social Studies. https://jdess.ub.ac.id/index.php/jdess/article/download/455/249
Sejati, G., & Wijaya, E. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Makroekonomi dan Indeks Global terhadap IHSG (Januari 2016 – Mei 2021). Prosiding BIEMA: Business Management, Economic, and Accounting National Seminar, 2, 125–140.
Silalahi, E., & Sihombing, R. (2021). Pengaruh Faktor Makro Ekonomi terhadap Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2020. JRAK (Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Dan Keuangan), 7(2), 139–152.
Sudarsana, I. M., & Candraningrat. (2014). Pengaruh Suku Bunga SBI, Nilai Tukar, Inflasi dan Indeks Dow Jones terhadap IHSG. E-Jurnal Manajemen Universitas Udayana, 3(9), 2564–2578.
Sugiyono. (2013). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan R&D (Cetakan ke-19). Alfabeta.
Sutandi, Wibowo, S., Sutisna, N., Se Fung, T., & Januardi, L. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi, Nilai Tukar (Kurs) Rupiah dan Tingkat Suku Bunga terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2016-2020. Akuntoteknologi: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Teknologi, 13(2), 1–14. https://jurnal.ubd.ac.id/index.php/akunto
Tandelilin, E. (2017). Portofolio dan Investasi: Teori dan Aplikasi. Kanisius.
Wiradinata, B., & Haryono, N. A. (2026). Global Market Pulse: Linking DJIA, FTSE, Nikkei, HSI, and BI Rate to Indonesia's Composite. International Journal of Multicultural and Multireligious Understanding, 13(3), 230–237. https://doi.org/10.18415/ijmmu.v13i3.7366
Wongkar, I. A., Mandey, S. L., & Tasik, H. H. D. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Indikator Makro terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2011-2015. Jurnal EMBA, 6(1), 31–40.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (5th Edition). South-Western Cengage Learning.
Wulan, R., Nurpadilah, N., & Pebrian, R. (2023). Pengaruh Inflasi, Harga Minyak Dunia, dan Suku Bunga (BI Rate) terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) (Data Per Bulan Periode 2011-2020). Jurnal Pijar: Studi Manajemen Dan Bisnis, 1(2), 130–143. https://e-journal.naureendigition.com/index.php/pmb
Zufar, M. R. N., & Dwiridotjahjono, J. (2026). Pengaruh Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Brent Crude Oil, dan Harga Emas Dunia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode Tahun 2020-2024. Jurnal Simki Economic, 9(2), 424–436. https://jurnal.unpkediri.ac.id/index.php/JSE
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Hilmi Fathur Rahman, Dicky Iranto, Tuty Sariwulan (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
