The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the INFOBANK15 Index for the 2022–2025 Period

Abstract

This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables on the INFOBANK15 Index in Indonesia during 2022 to 2025. The study is motivated by the different movement of the INFOBANK15 Index compared with the broader stock market during the post pandemic recovery and monetary policy normalization period. Previous studies on the effects of BIRate, inflation, and exchange rate on the INFOBANK15 Index have produced mixed findings and mostly focused on earlier periods. This study aims to analyze the partial and simultaneous effects of BI Rate, inflation, and the USD/IDR exchange rate on the IN-FOBANK15 Index. The study uses an explanatory quantitative approach with quarterly secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Statistics Indonesia, and Bank Indonesia. The analytical model is multiple linear regression, while the model pa-rameters are estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. All variables are transformed into natural logarithms to reduce scale differences across variables, stabilize data variation, and allow the coefficients to be interpreted as elasticity. The findings are expected to provide empirical evidence on the sensitivity of banking stock performance to macroeconomic changes and practical insights for investors, banking management, and monetary authorities.