Pengaruh Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, dan Belanja Pemerintah Daerah terhadap Kemiskinan pada Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effects of Average Years of Schooling, economic growth, and government spending on the poverty rate in 33 regencies/cities in North Sumatra Province during 2020–2024. The study employs a quantitative approach using panel data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and local government spending data. The data were analyzed using panel data regression with the assistance of EViews 10. Based on the Chow test and Hausman test, the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was selected as the most appropriate model. The results show that Average Years of Schooling has a negative and significant effect on poverty, while economic growth has a negative but insignificant effect. Government spending also has a negative and significant effect on the poverty rate. Simultaneously, the three variables have a significant effect on poverty. The R-squared value of 0.990207 indicates that the model is able to explain 99.02 percent of the variation in the poverty rate, while the remaining 0.98 percent is explained by factors outside the model. These findings highlight the importance of improving education and managing government spending in supporting poverty reduction efforts in North Sumatra.