Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Financial Distress
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63822/ewqs9s05Keywords:
financial distress, Banking Z-score, economic growth, credit riskAbstract
Financial distress in the banking sector is an important concern because financial difficulties at individual banks may affect broader financial stability. This study examines the effects of economic growth, exchange rates, profitability, and credit risk on financial distress in banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2015 to 2025. The study uses a quantitative approach and secondary data obtained from banks’ annual reports and official publications. A purposive sampling method was applied to select 33 banks, yielding 363 bank-year observations. Financial distress is measured using the Banking Z-score, for which a higher value indicates greater financial stability and a lower risk of financial distress. Profitability is measured by return on equity (ROE), while credit risk is measured by the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio. The data are analyzed using a random-effects panel regression model estimated through Panel EGLS in EViews 13. The results indicate that economic growth and profitability have positive and statistically significant relationships with the Banking Z-score, whereas credit risk has a negative and statistically significant relationship. The exchange rate has a negative but statistically insignificant relationship with the Z-score. The four independent variables are jointly significant, and the model explains 37.64% of the variation in the dependent variable. These findings suggest that stronger economic growth and profitability are associated with greater banking stability, while higher credit risk is associated with lower stability. Exchange rate movements do not show a statistically significant relationship in the estimated model.
Downloads
References
Ali, M., & Puah, C. H. (2018). The internal determinants of bank pro fi tability and stability An insight from banking sector of Pakistan. Management research review, 42(1), 49-67. https://doi.org/10.1108/MRR-04-2017-0103
Ben, R., Chkir, I., & Dabbou, H. (2022). International Review of Financial Analysis Is managerial ability a moderator ? The effect of credit risk and liquidity risk on the likelihood of bank default. International Review of Financial Analysis, 80(January), 102044. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102044
Christopoulos, A. G., Dokas, I. G., Kalantonis, P., & Koukkou, T. (2019). Investigation of financial distress with a dynamic logit based on the linkage between liquidity and profitability status of listed firms. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 70(10), 1817–1829. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2018.1460017
Dera Lastmi, P., & Rahyuda, H. (2025). Pengaruh tingkat kesehatan bank berbasis risk profile terhadap financial distress bank umum kbmi 2 dan 3. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 14(9), 667-681.14(9), 667–681. https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2025.v14.i9.p01
Dharmawan, A., Tho, X., Risal, F., & Dalimunthe, S. (2020). The effect of credit risk and capital adequacy on financial distress in rural banks. Accounting, 6(6), 967-74. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2020.7.023
Djebali, N., & Zaghdoudi, K. (2020). Threshold effects of liquidity risk and credit risk on bank stability in the MENA region. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(5), 1049–1063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.01.013
ElBannan, M. A. (2021). On the prediction of financial distress in emerging markets: What matters more? Empirical evidence from Arab spring countries. Emerging Markets Review, 47(February 2020), 100806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2021.100806
Fadhillah, R., & Syaadah, N. (2024). How Capital Adequacy , Liquidity and Profitability Impact Financial Distress in Islamic Rural Banks in Indonesia. International Journal, 1(4), 210-227
Foglia, M. (2022). Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors : The Italian Case. Risks 2022, 10(1), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10010021
Gertler, M., Kiyotaki, N., Prestipino, A., Gertler, M., Kiyotaki, N., & Prestipino, A. (2019). Credit Booms , Banking Crises and Macro Prudential Policy Credit Booms , Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy. Review of Economic Dynamics, 37(August, Suppl. 1), S8-S33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.06.004
Hidayah, N. N., Adiputra, A. K., Chrismawan, P. E. E., & Sujarweni, V. W. (2024). Analisis Financial Distress Menggunakan Model Altman Z-Score Pada Perusahaan Perbankan yang Tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2019-2021. Jurnal Akuntansi, Ekonomi dan Manajemen Bisnis, 5(1), 55-71. https://doi.org/10.30871/jaemb.v5i1.275
Hussein, N., Elhussein, A., Eltayeb, O., & Osman, E. (2019). Exchange Rate fluctuations and Financial Performance of Banks : Evidence from Sudan. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 11(12), 15–27. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v11n12p15
Kalash, I. (2021). The financial leverage–financial performance relationship in the emerging market of Turkey: the role of financial distress risk and currency crisis. EuroMed Journal of Business, 18(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1108/EMJB-04-2021-0056
Mabkhot, H. (2022). Banks ’ Financial Stability and Macroeconomic Key Factors in GCC Countries. Sustainability 2022, 14, 15999. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su142315999
Marginingsih, R., Manurung, A. H., & Buchdadi, A. D. (2024). Liquidity , Leverage And Profitability Ratios As Predictors of Financial Distress With Moderation of Firm Size. Journal of Industrial Engineering & Management Research (JIEMAR), 5(4), 1–12. http://www.jiemar.org
Metwally, A. B. M., Yasser, M. M., Ahmed, E. A., & Ali, M. A. S. (2025). Financial and Economic Determinants of Banks Financial Distress in MENA Region. Economies, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies13020056
Morina, D. (2025). International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Stability : Evidence from OECD Countries. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 20(8), 3445–3452. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.200825
Mufidah, K., & Handayani, A. (2024). Prediksi Financial Distress pada Sektor Perbankan dengan Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score, Grover, Springate dan Zmijewski. urnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sistem Informasi (JEMSI), 5(6), 543-556. https://doi.org/10.38035/jemsi.v5i6.2479
Nkwoma, J., Jin, Y., & Rebecca, M. (2018). The effects of fi nancial distress : Evidence from US GDP growth. Economic Modelling, (December 2017), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.001
Rahayu, N. E. E., Kusuma, H., & Arifin, Z. (2025). The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Distress of Companies in Asean: an Analysis of SDG Implications. Journal of Lifestyle and SDGs Review, 5(3), e05060. https:// doi.org/10.47172/2965-730X.SDGsReview.v5.n03.pe05060
Romadhina, A. P., Fitriani, M. N., & Andhitiyara, R. (2022). the Effect of Cash Flow and Currency Exchange Rate on Financial Distress. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Perpajakan Jayakarta, 3(02), 146–167. https://doi.org/10.53825/japjayakarta.v3i02.111
Sadaa, A. M., Ganesan, Y., Yet, C. E., Alkhazaleh, Q., Alnoor, A., & Mohammad, A. (2023). Corporate governance as antecedents and financial distress as a consequence of credit risk. Evidence from Iraqi banks. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 9(2), 100051. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joitmc.2023.100051
Sehgal, S., Mishra, R. K., & Jaisawal, A. (2021). A search for macroeconomic determinants of corporate financial distress. Indian Economic Review, 56(2), 435–461. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-021-00119-4
Sitompul, T., Lim, J., Wong, J. J., Harapan, U. P., & Harapan, U. P. (2025). The Effect of Profitability Towards Financial Distress 1. AKUA: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 4(2), 171–180. https://doi.org/10.54259/akua.v4i2.4287
Wulandari, Y., & Kusairi, S. (2017). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues The Impact of Macroeconomic and Internal Factors on Banking Distress. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(3), 429–436.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Nur Wahidina, M. Amin Kadafi (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
